[Jim Doran]

"For the performance car enthusiast, Lutz predicts a transformation akin to horse-riding, where enthusiasts will go to country club-like areas to practice their soon-to-be antiquated skills."

Not the world I want to retire in !

http://www.thecarconnection.com/news...ears#src=10000

[hurryinhoosier62]

X 2, Jim!

[dataway]

In my job I talk to hundreds of young people 21-25 every week ... I see why he thinks that. The majority of them don't own cars, don't really want a car. They hardly have the mental capacity to pay their rent, owning a car, paying insurance, fixing a car ... they have a hard imagining it's possible.
They are FAR more concerned with their social lives, their phones, what they are wearing. They've been taught cars are evil, wasteful and unnecessary. When I was a kid, about 90% of young men thought a car was absolutely essential to their way of life, now it's about 40%. They dream of living in an apartment in NYC, dining, going to shows and concerts, flying or uber when they have to go somewhere.
"Driving" to them is not fun, it's a pain. They'd rather take a train, or have someone else drive etc. Amazing how many of them don't even have a drivers license. A good percentage of them only have a license so they can get into bars.

On top of this, governments will continue to make it more, and more expensive and difficult to own a vehicle. I would say in 30 years, in this country you will have to "show need" to be allowed to own a vehicle over a certain weight. Business, rural address, agriculture etc. Cities will by then have banned fuel burning vehicles.

Hopefully battery technology will change this possible outcome. If they get power density to about twice what it is now, practical and powerful electric cars will be a real possibility. Four times what it is now, and they would perform like a gasoline powered car as far as range, speed and cost. Only if you don't use the heat on a winter day And only if they totally rebuild the entire electric grid to charge millions of electric cars using trillions of amps of power every night when they plug in.

[John V.]

Attended a presentation on truck platooning a few months ago. Researchers are grappling with all kinds of issues that have nothing really to do with the technical challenge.

I recall the prediction that this technology was probably still 20 yrs out but my take, self-driving trucks will happen sooner than 20 yrs. Cars may take longer.

Automobile accidents kill 40,000 or so every year. Many/most people today would rather spend their commute time on social media.

Those folks do not derive the same pleasure in driving a car that the folks in the old car hobby typically experience. For many, cars are just an appliance, not a cherished possession.

Add it all up and the move to driverless cars will happen sooner than you might think.

It really isn't worthwhile to make predictions about when it might happen. All you need to do is study up on the research and development work that has been underway for awhile to know that the concept is not going away.

And the pace of technological change seems to have sped up over the lifetime of any baby boomer. So it isn't hard to imagine driverless vehicles supplanting today's vehicles in very short order.

One challenge to overcome is the inventory of vehicles. The aggregate value of these vehicles won't easily or quickly be forfeited. Who will pay for that?

I imagine that some guys who grew up riding a horse were slow to adopt the horseless carriage. That didn't stop the automobile era from taking off. And before long, horses used for basic transportation were just a memory.

The transition to a totally driverless public road system is likely to be accompanied by draconian laws and happen much more rapidly.

[NBF823]

Sounds terrible that I wont have the option to drive.

Ive already relegated myself to not diving my favorite cars durning rushhours nor crowded enviroments; most drivers are quite terrible, and being that they drive cookie-cutter mass-produced whatchmacallits, they arent afraid to rub paint, and if your tooling a vintage sled, it can be quite worrisome.

Im not afraid to take an automated ride M-F, nor even on a weekend so I can have one to many(which I can currently never do), and I think Id be happier if a machine handled the driving for most of the imbiciles I endure on the roadways. But to not have the option, not to "love my car nor the relationship it and I have - misery my friends. I dont know what Ill use my brain for - I see a self destuctive downward spiral for me due to the lack of use of my humanly-techno skills, and my general nature of wanting to improve and push machine physical capabilities. Ill be no different than most everyone else, and I suspect Ill dislike me like I dislike them

[Mister Pontiac]

I doubt it.

20 years? No way. 100 years? Perhaps, but still not likely. Here's why...

I live in this (utopian?) world of automation today (flying) where the machine can do essentially everything, if (and this is the catch) everything is programmed correctly and the computers are operating correctly. But without me being there to program and monitor things, the machine goes nowhere. And even when it does all work properly, I still have to sit there and monitor it. While monitoring, I can't tell you the number of times my partner and I say, "what's it doing now?" And this occurs even when it's programmed correctly.

How many of you have had your computer or smartphone simply stop responding, lock up, shut down, whatever? Yep, we all have. Stray electrons are a fact of life with electrical gadgets.

My prediction? Sure, there will be 'driverless' cars, but not unmonitored cars. I envision it like autopilot for cars. It's cruise control combined with braking and accelerating, plus navigation coupling for steering. However, just like airplanes today, someone will always need to be in there to keep an eye on things.

[U47]

Here is what he said;

“It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era,” he writes this month for Automotive News. Our daily travel, he predicts, will migrate to standardized passenger modules as the demolition of the traditional auto industry accelerates. Within five years, he expects, people will start selling their cars for scrap or trade then in for autonomous passenger modules as self-driving cars take over transportation. Within 20 years, human-driven vehicles will be legislated off highways. Companies like Lyft, Uber, Google and other technology companies will take charge of an industry now centered in Detroit, Germany, and Japan.
“The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command,” he writes. “You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you’ll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway

[skullbucket]

I hope I have unloaded my car before that happens.

[dataway]

What about motorcycles? And in Europe and Asia the number of scooters is absolutely amazing. Also only the most 1st world, of 1st world road systems is even remotely capable of supporting a self driving auto world. Imagine Italy giving up driving cars, motorcycles and scooters, no to mention their road system would be an absolute nightmare to program a car around. More than half of the world is still driving, and can only afford to own, the most simple forms of transportation like small scooters and three wheel "cars". Not sure if they are going to change so quick. Heck, you can still find goods brought to market in France and Italy by an animal and cart.

But in countries like the US, UK, Germany ... it will happen much quicker, because the people have the money the govt. can steal to make it happen.

[U47]

Originally Posted by dataway

What about motorcycles? And in Europe and Asia the number of scooters is absolutely amazing. Also only the most 1st world, of 1st world road systems is even remotely capable of supporting a self driving auto world. Imagine Italy giving up driving cars, motorcycles and scooters, no to mention their road system would be an absolute nightmare to program a car around. More than half of the world is still driving, and can only afford to own, the most simple forms of transportation like small scooters and three wheel "cars". Not sure if they are going to change so quick. Heck, you can still find goods brought to market in France and Italy by an animal and cart.

But in countries like the US, UK, Germany ... it will happen much quicker, because the people have the money the govt. can steal to make it happen.

Motorcycles, scooters no problem;
carousel music ride - YouTube

▶*2:02
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TWGPFpeyPw

[GTOnly70]

It will happen eventually, but not within 20 years. Gives me some time to find a place for the Red Barchetta.

[Chris65LeMans]

I’ve found that most “what life will be like in 20 years” proclamations turn out to be really funny 20 years on.

[dataway]

Originally Posted by U47

Motorcycles, scooters no problem;
carousel music ride - YouTube

▶*2:02
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TWGPFpeyPw

I don't get it.

[Judge273]

We were suppose to have flying cars by now too...high speed trains...

Around here western access to Ohare was suppose to happen as well. Tollways were to be paid off and lottery was to take care of school budgets and pension.

20 years and more tolls, pension crisis, and not one flying car or any high speed trains. Leads me to believe we are behind this schedule by a lot.

[The Boss]

Originally Posted by GTOnly70

It will happen eventually, but not within 20 years. Gives me some time to find a place for the Red Barchetta.

That was my first thought - always is when I hear something like this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uukZgfHZIoc

[Keith Seymore]

Originally Posted by U47

Here is what he said;

“It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era,” he writes this month for Automotive News. Our daily travel, he predicts, will migrate to standardized passenger modules as the demolition of the traditional auto industry accelerates. Within five years, he expects, people will start selling their cars for scrap or trade then in for autonomous passenger modules as self-driving cars take over transportation. Within 20 years, human-driven vehicles will be legislated off highways. Companies like Lyft, Uber, Google and other technology companies will take charge of an industry now centered in Detroit, Germany, and Japan.
“The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command,” he writes. “You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you’ll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway

...and, if my experience on planes and trains is any indication, I'll start throwing up about halfway through the ride.

This scenario is not sustainable for me.

K

[tripower]

Can remember this same rhetoric a few years back regarding airplanes. Planes will fly themselves in the near future!

Now the technology to fly large passenger jets without pilots is available, and has been. Computers can take a passenger jet from startup, taxi, take off, navigation, landing, etc. Pretty much the entire flight process can be automated with the technology we have today. However, there is an obvious reason fully automated passenger jet service has never been implemented, and most likely never will.

[mgarblik]

I have allot of respect for Mr. Lutz and he echoes the thoughts and predictions of many "forward thinkers" in and around the industry. Last months Car and Driver Magazine had a 30+ page section on these topics. A good read. Time marches forward, and advances will be made, and possibly owner driven cars for normal transportation will eventually be phased out. Much of the speed with which this will occur will rest with the current and future generation of new drivers. As mentioned by others in this thread, the millennials have little use for cars and trucks unless WE help them appreciate them. One anecdotal case. My son in law is 29 years old. He just got his drivers license for the first time when he was 27. For all the reasons others have stated, he just didn't see the need for one or the expense and couldn't understand and "pleasure factor" from owning one. He walked, bummed rides, or rode his bike. And he is no bum. Works in a maximum security area at the Wright Patterson Air Force base. Now having a drivers license for two years he just bought a 2014 Dodge Charger. Now he loves driving and is getting into cars. There is hope.
Concerning the 20 year time frame, I am still waiting for my flying car and my Jet pack. These were promised to me when I was 10 years old !

[Interceptor]

I know my kids see me screwing with the carb and fixing stuff regularily and probably think I'm a fool. The only way they could be enticed into driving is if it were pretty much maintenance-free. Mainly, youth nowadays are just plain lazy, but I'm sure that's what our parents said 40 year ago too ...

[Old Goat Racer]

We have 3 "race cars". What's their destiny?