Got a Real Estate reality check yesterday
 

House across the street listed yesterday. There was a non stop stream of people from 8am to 7pm. Some realtors came alone giving phone video tours. 1500sq ft on city lot. 1925 house. Nice, but what I used to call blue collar (yes I live in one). It was a circus and a frenzy all day. Sold as of listing this morning. 340K list. I am hearing 50K over list is common now, up to even 100 I heard in one instance. It is literally an auction. In my life never seen anything like it. In a way I was sad seeing young mothers with babies in arms. There were a few. This is Kalispell MT btw.

I was up in Whitefish a couple weeks ago. I was amazed at all the builing going on in the area.... and blown away by the prices. What is driving the boom there??? I remember going up there when I was a kid.. late 1970's..early 1980's. Was really disappointed the area has been yuppyized with all the artsy fartsy crap and all the new construction. Reminded of California.. :(

Florida is same. Zillow has my house at 4X what I paid and don't think it knows about the garages.

The taxable value on my house went up $45K from last year. A couple houses on my block sold this spring, they were only on the market for a couple days and got multiple bids over asking price.

Our son and wife bought a home in central Florida a month ago. They missed about ten houses as they were selling faster than one could get an offer in. The one they got to buy had lookers scheduled every half hour all day, seller got to choose who would be the buyers. He was wearing a Gators cap and the owner and he chatted a bit and they were "chosen".

It’s really crazy out here. What bought you 3,000 sf in a really nice area 10 years ago now gets you 1,200 sf 3 bedroom in an “ok” area.

Yes real estate is crazy right now and $50,000-$100,000 over list. Homes selling in hours not days buyers waiving Apprasial of the home and building supplies going through the roof! My daughter and son-in-law just got a home in Orange County Ca! First time home buyers 1300sqft 3 bed 2 bath built in 1956 over $650,000. My first home $93,000 how do kids get a start with prices like that!! And if you’re selling…… where are you moving to, buying full price paying cash driving that state/ county prices up.
Craziness

Same up here in Canada, house close to me are selling at 100-150G over listed price. Just crazy.
was thinking about selling but, where do you go?? People are listing for stupid prices and getting it. 400-500G over tax assessments.

Exactly, just an interesting blip since have no desire to sell. Then family wanted sidewalks and good schools. I just wanted room to work. Now have empty nest but 2,000 sq ft of house (room for cats to stampede) and 2,000 sq ft of garage space. Plus pads. HOA approved. Close to attractions but still in county (low taxes). Be near impossible to replace.

Same in the Silicon Valley, not much under 1 million right now. Seems there is no end in site . Lots of house flipping going on. I have a new neighbor next door, paid 1.87m for a complete rebuild. Some guy paid 900k , gutted it left 1 or 2 walls. Probably made 500k profit on the venture.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Houses in our neighborhood are now going for $200+/sq ft. We bought ours 5 years ago new for $110 sq ft. Almost makes me want to sell and find a plot out in the country and build a big garage.

The way lumber prices are right now I would be scared to build anything. Over double in just lumber costs.

Lumber pricing is down 40% since May.

https://www.ajc.com/news/lumber-pric...COIQM2ST2RSU4/

We're meeting with a builder next week for 2022 construction of our retirement home.

I wish someone would tell Home Depot lumber prices are down. I don't think they got the word.

My reality check came Tuesday afternoon at 6PM.

I'm months away from retirement, and have been looking for a nice home with a big workshop in the NC, VA, or TN mountains. My wife would prefer to stay closer to where we now live. I search Zillow daily, and a home popped up showing an estimated price of $220K that was being auctioned. The home was a 1000 sq ft single wide mobile home that had been bricked up and had a steel roof put on. It was on ten acres, but it was 45 minutes from my house, and about one hour fifteen minutes in light traffic from Raleigh. It was in small town called Goldston NC, with a population of about 400 people. No fast food, no chain restaurants, no grocery stores, a couple of locally owned restaurants, a garage, and a convenience store. The house has no cable TV, internet is through satellite, and cell phone coverage was horrible. The tract was ten acres, but it had about a 2000 sq foot pole barn that was nicely done. It was very peaceful , the lot was long and narrow and the home/garage was well off the road.

I was the opening bid at $100K, and I remained the high bidder until 1 minute before the auction closed with the price at $184K. The bidding was online, and if a bid came in just before the close, bidding extended three minutes every time a new bid came in. So at 5:59, the price bumped up $1K. I had already decided to bid up to $201K (there was a 10% buyer's premium tacked onto the sale price), and I hung in there until bidding reached $202K. After all, it was a mobile home in the middle of nowhere.

The price continued to rise, it finally closed at $253K, which cost the buyer close to $280K. Before the auction, I talked to a real estate in a nearby town, and he estimated $200 - 220K for the property.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...50625888_zpid/

Two days later (Thursday), a nice 2000 sq ft brick house with a full unfinished basement showed up in Zillow. The house was in Hildebran, in the NC foothills. It had a 36 x 50 metal building and was on a 2 acre lot. The Zillow listing price was $350K. I sent an email to the listing broker asking if the unfinished basement was wide open (it had a single garage door entrance). The next day, he returned my email. He said he already had 13 offers over list price, and there were scheduled showings going on the rest of the day (Friday and through noon on Saturday). There were no more showings scheduled after noon on Saturday as they planned to present the offers to the owner, and all the scheduled showings had been filled. If I had any interest, I would have to make an offer without seeing the property.

It's gotten crazy, it has to be home speculators hoping to flip the home for a profit. It kind of reminds me of 2007, and we know how that ended. The Fed is even threatening rate hikes in 2023.

I'm going to keep looking, but I'm not buying into the hype.

Mike

The new Vail type thing. The ruining of the previously undiscovered. We have become the escape from everywhere USA to move (remote working) , and the discovered place to buy a second home for the wealthy. Big California and Texas money people (say billionaires) have moved in and are investing / building. I have 10 acres half hour south of here in the Salish range and now 10 more in SW New Mexico. My escape from this will be small cabins on both. I'm done with the nutso town stuff. It'll take a year or two to pull off.

As an aside, I would not sell a house I lived in before buying at least the land for the new one. You could get priced out even with cash in hand and wind up in a tiny dump.

The house on the corner sold a month ago. A woman with no furniture from Maryland is there in this big 1910 house and tall grass now. It is a weird world.

History tends to repeat particularly here. See the first Florida land boom. Bubble burst in 1925.

I just checked mine on zillow...$600,000+ It's a 2 bed, 1 bath on an acre. Crazy.

This is smelling like 2008 all over again but instead of sub prime mortgages, it's a propped up economy and stock market through tens of trillions in debt. It'll be interesting to see how things pan out this go-'round when SHTF. Pay off all debt, your home if possible, and stash a nest egg for hard times ahead. It's not a matter of "if" but "when."

Paid $385,000 Dec '19.. It's now worth $525,000-$550,000.. 1400 sqft on 1/2 acre California central valley.. Glad we bought when we did...

The houses around here are selling on day 1, and sometimes even before they hit the market.

The house down the street was slated to have an open house on Sunday, but sold Saturday for 853k. Iirc it was listed at 815k.

Another down the street was listed at 945k, sold for 1.05m

The housing market is bananas now

Bought for $20k 4 years ago, sold Yesterday for $72k.

Bowling teamate is a Realtor. Says our present home would sell for about 1.7x what we paid. Not For Sale.

"Pay off all debt, your home if possible"

I disagree. a 2-3% fixed mortgage is a great hedge against inflation.

Spend whatever you want right now, inflation will take care of the rest.

We bought for 192k in 2009 (North Houston) and now Zillow says $380k without my shop. Our realtor friend said it’s more like 420-450 and will sell within days.

If you had a house that had issues and couldn’t pass inspection now is the time to sell. So many people not requiring inspections- I don’t get it.

I totally agree. My father-in-law bought his house in the early to mid-1960s with a mortgage somewhere around 3.5% . Inflation went crazy in the mid 70s, with mortgage rates getting close to 20% in the early 1980s. I started dating my wife in the late 1970s, and his mortgage lender was doing their best to convince him to tap the equity in his home with a cash-out refinance, or pay off his home early. I remember telling him he was making money with interest rates being in the teens, and him only having a 3.5% rate. Luckily he did nothing.

Interest rates went down for almost 40 years, and they have nowhere to go but up. I don't think investors will want to keep funding this country's excess at such low interest rates, so I think higher interest rates are in our future. I plan to downsize my current home and will finance my next home, taking the cash and investing it.

There's no such thing as a starter home anymore. Well not unless you want to live in meth country?

Home Depot plywood 15/32" ( just under 1/2" for those in Rio Linda ) was $ 78.86 a sheet today, and they have plenty in stock. OSB same size about 10 dollars less.
The Trex decking ( 5.5 inches wide) is LESS money than the 5/4" Standard 6" wide PT decking.. ..
3 months ago Diesel was Less than Gas...
Inflation will stop the building/ buying craze.
I now pick up any new 2x6, 2x8, 2x10, and 2x12 sections over 2 ft long at the Landfill and hang on to them, and there are plenty.

Florida
 

Where in Florida are you?

Same downunder with RE.
Homes in Sydney have sold for millions above reserve at auction

Sent from my SM-A426B using Tapatalk

We have been looking for a house in the Tampa area for several months and it could not be a worse time to buy. A lot of people in NY are selling their houses, freeing up several hundred thousand dollars of profit and buying sight unseen, paying $80,000+ over asking and paying cash. We aren't even going to try to compete with that.

We will likely have to stay where we are for another year or so. The correction is coming but not soon enough for us.

Need a realtor? Just saying. ;)

Yea, it's not much better here in Sarasota. It was a neutral market when we moved 2.5yrs ago. It's certainly a sellers market. Few things contributing to that.
1. Interest rates are still low.
2. People are fleeing high tax states such as everyone on in New England and the Tri-State area, California as well.
3. New home construction is down and it's really increased in price due to demand and material cost.

NAR (National Association of Realtors) predicts this is the trend for at least the next 18 months or so.

Personally, I don't think it will last 18 months. The economy is showing signs of tanking long before that. Inflation is going to do its magic and it's going to get ugly. I just hope that the prime doesn't go nuts.

"Where in Florida are you?" - in my .sig, been here for 35 years & got here by moving north.

(Hi Don) I'd look to the central Florida highlands,. Many fresh water lakes if that is your thang.

Essentially start on US 27 at Lake Okechobee & go north to rt 19 a little after 27 crosses the turnpike then 19 north to Palatka. Suspect something is available along that 250 mile stretch of rust free country. Alternately start in Orlando and go west on rt 50. Yer takes yer pick.

The Villiages are north of that and personally prefer to avoid.

Can PM for more information.

The only ones benefitting are- 1 realtors commissions ( and they are not really even needed with the market so hot ).
and of course- the government as it all equates to more property taxes.

I've been done with real estate for many years and so glad for that. Own 2 acreages, both paid off and super low taxes.

Agree it is best to get lots while you are young.

Builders are now using sliding scale price much like truckers did with the fuel surcharge. You sign a contract for $X + a price escalator for material price increases.

You got that right!


:eek:

I was told by a realtor the other day, sell now, but not buy. Foreclosures are going to start amping up and a crash is coming. Wait and buy when the **** hits the fan.

It won't be like last time. They aren't giving $500K mortgages to people making $30K this time around. There will be some but it won't be anything like 2008-2011

Around Birmingham, if you don't go to a house viewing ready to write a check, and for over asking, you'll miss out. There's gonna be a bust shortly......

Hey Don, just curious, why the move from Palm Harbor to Tampa? Most of us would likely gravitate toward the beach (except for the crowding over there).

If you're seeking land, Plant City and east is a reasonable option.

Harvey

Best value for your money between Tampa and Orlando would be Polk county, third largest county area wise in Florida. 1hr to Tampa 1hr to Orlando. Cities in the county are: Lakeland, winter Haven, Bartow, lake Wales, Haines city and about 4-6 more. Lots of large parcels. Lived and worked there for 30 yrs.

In 1997, some people we knew split up their farm and sold lots. We got lot #1 (2.5ac), and after being there a year in a new house - we bought the lot next door (#2). Its still unimproved, except for a fence, two cattle of questionable quality, and a portable shed for them. Its now worth 3.5x what we paid. I'm tempted to sell, but I keep realizing that I'd rather stare at my cows every day, than some close neighbor that has a 50/50 shot of being an *sshole.

thats why follow has a buy your house program to get unsuspecting ppl to sell and their superior knowledge will resell keeping the difference

My wife wanted me to take her to some place expensive over the weekend so I took her to the lumber isle at Home Depot !

For entertainment purposes only, watch the value of your property on Zillow. Mine has gone up 51k in the last year, 4k this week!
James Q

I keep hearing lumber down 40%. Haven't seen any evidence of it at any of the retail stores I frequent. In fact, OSB was a few bucks more yesterday than last week at Lowes!

That's their COST and not their PRICE.

According to Zillow, our house is now worth $143K more than when we bought it 5 years ago and half of that is since Jan. 2021.

This bubble is going to burst soon...

We have sorta been looking to move from Bedford to the slightly more metropolitan Bloomington. Im in my house good, but dont want to pay the crazy prices to buy another place.

I honestly have been considering selling and then renting for a year to see if the market calms down.